Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Post 9:Gold Price Forecast 2012

Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh,

Kita telah memasuki tahun baru 2012 dan 1433. Maka anda perlu tahu ramalan harga emas pada tahun 2012 untuk menyusun strategi pelaburan emas anda.

Berita ini saya kutip daripada tradingnrg.com

Let’s also break this forecast into factors that could push up precious metals prices compared with factors that may pull bullion prices down.
Here are three reasons why I speculate gold and silver prices will remain high and even rise in 2012:
  1. Quantitative Easing Plan #3: if the U.S. economy won’t start to recover, there is the possibility (even if it’s a small one) that the Fed will issue another stimulus plan (QE3);
  2. Low interest rates: as long as the U.S. will keep its inertest rates low, gold and silver pricesare likely to remain high;
  3. Slowdown in the U.S. economy: since the U.S is entering an election year, the economic issues are likely to take the back seat; if the U.S. economy will enter a double dip rescission, precious metals are likely to thrive.
Here are four reasons to trade down gold and silver in 2012: 
  1. Recovery of U.S. Economy: If the U.S. economy will show signs of slow recovery as in the last few months of 2011, this may curb the rally of bullion prices and lower the chances of the Fed issuing another stimulus plan (QE3);
  2. The European Debt Crisis: if the EU will continue to struggle in dealing with the debt crisis, this may also adversely affect gold and silver prices;
  3. CME Margins: as seen in 2011, CME is likely to keep a vigilant eye on the development in the bullion market; if there will be a sharp gain, be sure there is the possibility that CME will intervene and raise margins again.
  4. U.S. Dollar: If the U.S. dollar will continue to strengthen against other currencies including CAD and AUD, this may also negatively affect gold and silver prices.
Considering the statements mentioned above, I speculate there is a good chance gold and silver prices will perform poorer in 2012 than in 2011. If there will be another stimulus plan or an event that will stir up the markets then there is a small chance that gold and silver prices will perform better in 2012 than in 2011, but not by much.

Berdasarkan 3 reason vs 4 reason di atas, mereka jangkakan harga emas dan perak pada 2012 agak tidak memberangsangkan berbanding 2011. Kalaupun ada stimulus plan, harganya akan agak memberangsangkan tetapi tidak banyak beza dengan 2011.

Ini pula berita yang percaya harga emas cukup memberangsangkan pada tahun 2012 yang sumbernya daripada moneymorning.com

How high is gold likely to go?

My own research tells me we should expect gold to easily reach $2,200 in 2012.

A few market mavens have been providing their forecasts too.

Sean Boyd, chief executive officer (CEO) of $7 billion Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE: AEM), recently told King World News, "People are looking for hard assets and gold, being one of the primary hard assets, is a major beneficiary. So we don't see any reason to believe this upward trend in gold won't continue. I think it will continue and we will see $2,000 shortly."

Rajan Venkatesh, managing director for Indian bullion at ScotiaMocatta, said he expects gold prices to touch $2,000 an ounce by March. 

And this past June, Standard Chartered PLC (PINK: SCBFF) made what some think is an "outrageous" prediction. 

The bank's research team considered the production levels of 345 gold mines and concluded production will rise just 3.6% annually for the next five years, while demand expands much faster. 

Their price prediction: $5,000 gold is likely in the near future.

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